I've shot the USP .40 and .45 full size, the USP .40 compact, and the P2000 .40 and 357SIG compact.
The USP .40 full size has about the same recoil as the .45, but the .45 seemed to be much more accurate (I have no idea why). The USP .40 compact seemed to fit really nice. The recoil difference between the full size and compact was noticeable but not detrimental – though the accuracy seemed to diminish greatly with follow-up shots, maybe some more practice with the gun would help. The P2000 .40 on the other hand was about the recoil equivalent of the full size USP .40. Accuracy with the gun was amazing for such a small frame. But what I was floored with was the P2000 357SIG. That was very fun to shoot. The recoil was fast and snappy, which allowed for very fast and accurate follow-up shots. But with the knowledge that the bullet is traveling at 1400-1500 FPS gives me a warm fuzzy feeling. This was the second most accurate gun on the lineup (the full size USP .45 being the best). The P2000 in general is an extremely comfortable small-frame gun. The double-action is a good feeling, though the law enforcement action may be better for concealment.
Overall (including all guns) I like the .40 caliber bullet the best. It is a nice fast bullet which is good if you are looking for penetration, but the bullet is plenty big enough to do some nice flesh damage (especially with JHPs).
Quick chart (groupings are at 25 yards, the distance between the two furthest apart bullets – diameter of the grouping):
Gun .. weight .. speed .. groupings
USP .40 FS .. 180 gr .. 965 FPS .. 6-inches
USP .45 FS .. 230 gr .. 860 FPS .. 3.5-inches
USP .40 CP .. 180 gr .. 940 FPS .. 6.5-inches
P2000 .40 .. 180 gr .. 930 FPS .. 5-inches
P2000 357SIG .. 125 gr .. 1450 FPS .. 4-inches
You may notice, the USP .40 compact has almost twice the size of groupings as the full size .45.
After I did these tests, I bought a USP .45 full size, and I am planning on buying a P2000. I just have to decide if I want to spend the extra money on ammo for the 357SIG, because it definitely shoots better with single shots, and follow-up shots have a very nice feel too. But for concealing, the P2000 seems like a much better gun than the USP compact.
Hope this helps you decide on something.